Dear Mr. Frost,
As the U.S. enters its fifth week striking Iran, Americans wonder: what next?
While we’ve had tactical success through Operation Epic Fury, destroyed many targets, and taken out the majority of the Iranian government, it’s still unclear what our next move is.
The war in Iran might be a successful show of U.S. capabilities, but with the economic and diplomatic costs, along with no clear endgame, the cons heavily outweigh the pros.
Economically, this war impacts the entire globe. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, 20% of the world’s oil supply has been removed. While Brent Crude, a major classification tool for crude oil globally, used to be $80/barrell, it’s now pushing towards $120/barrel since the war started. Even though the U.S. is energy-independent on paper, when global prices surge, it hits everyday Americans the hardest.
Along with that, according to a New York Times article, in just the first week the Pentagon admitted Operation Epic Fury cost $11.3-12.7 billion. With a rapidly increasing national debt cost, the last thing we need is aimless billions being spent.
It seems as though the Trump administration has overlooked what this means for everyday Americans. Gas has risen by nearly $1, and grocery prices are soaring as transport costs continue to increase.
On top of this, allies of the U.S. in Europe and many parts of Asia are encouraging their citizens to decrease their energy consumption because of incredible surcharges. Not only is our economy affected, but so are the economies of our allies. And it’s on us.
Not counting our allies, many other nations are being dragged into the war. Because of Iranian retaliation, neutral countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are being hit. This war is anything but contained as the White House is implying.
Not only that, but there is no clear future for Iran. A weakened or shattered Iran doesn’t lead to democracy or a more just government, but rather the possibility of increased inner hostility.
Ethnic groups like the Kurdish, Baluchi, or Azeri could go into conflict, which could spill beyond Iran into nations like Iraq and Turkey. Additionally, we’ve already seen Proxy groups like the Houthis get involved, showing that this war is far from ending. Instead, it’s expanding at an undefinable rate.
With the expansion of this war, Americans are left wondering: what does a win really look like? Total occupation? Seizure of weapons? Regime change? Any of these options are not only short-term, but cost an extremely high price for the U.S.
Every billion spent in the Persian Gulf is a billion not spent on domestic matters. If anything, our funds should be spent helping our people rather than fighting wars that dig us a deeper hole.
Regardless of the economic factors, this war is completely politically unsustainable. Our allies like the U.K. and beyond are skeptical or even outright opposed to the war. How can we get through this war with little help and an opposing public opinion? The short answer is: we can’t.
In summary, this war isn’t the success we are being told it is, but rather a disaster unfolding in front of our eyes.
If the President and his administration truly care about the best interests for Americans, he will begin an immediate and complete ceasefire. At the end of the day, the greatest threat to American interests isn’t a defiant Iran, but rather an aimless war that exhausts our economy and alienates our friends.
— Lindsie Utter, Queensbury
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