In 21st District, Dems’ enrollment fell 817; GOP rose 1,888 Nov. 1 to Feb. 20

By Maury Thompson, Special to The Chronicle

The 21st Congressional District became even more red in the roughly four months after the November election, as the region geared up for an expected special election which has not materialized.

Democratic active enrollment in the district decreased by 817 voters between Nov. 1 and Feb. 20, while Republican active enrollment increased by 1,888 voters, according to a report by the state Board of Elections.

The share of Republican enrollment in the 15-county district increased from 41.6% of the electorate to 41.8%, while the share of Democratic enrollment decreased from 26.5% to 26.2%.

The statistics reinforce that Democrats must draw votes from non-affiliated, often referred to as independent, voters to win
.
Independents were seen as a key to the 24-point reelection win of U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-Schuylerville, in November.

Just after the election, President Donald Trump announced that he would nominate Rep. Stefanik as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee backed her nomination on Jan. 30, but the full Senate confirmation vote was delayed.

On March 27, President Trump withdrew the nomination, saying he needed to protect the razor-thin Republican majority in the House, pre-empting the expected special election.

Rep. Stefanik has not said whether she will seek re-election to the House in 2026.

Kirk Bado, editor of National Journal’s Hotline, remarked on C-SPAN’s call-in program “Washington Journal” on April 2, “She, I think, is going to be safe in that seat for as long as she wants it,” given the the Republican registration advantage and that she’s won the district six times.

But Mr. Bado said Rep. Stefanik might not seek re-election.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if she looked for other opportunities, whether that’s another post in the administration, whether that’s something outside of Congress.

“I think her future is really up in the air right now.”

Total active enrollment in the 21st District increased by 2,118 voters. Non-affiliated enrollment increased by 1,327 voters. Conservative enrollment increased by 144 voters, and Working Families enrollment increased by 68 voters.

Enrollment in other political parties decreased by 275 voters, a continued trend in political parties that lost ballot access in 2020.

In Warren County Democratic active enrollment increased by 38 voters, Republican by 154, independent by 222.

In Washington County, Democratic enrollment decreased by 118 voters. Republican enrollment increased by 130 voters and independent by 27.

In the portion of Saratoga County in the 21st Congressional District, Democratic enrollment decreased by 19 voters. Republican enrollment increased by 132 voters and independent by 130.

The Saratoga County towns of Moreau, Corinth, Wilton, Hadley, Day, Edinburgh, Providence, Greenfield and Saratoga are in the 21st District.

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